Invasion of Xu Province

"In all the years of my life, I have never heard of any Liu Bei in this world." -- Yuan Shu, in the letter that urged Lü Bu to seize Xiapi (Records of the Three Kingdoms, Biography of Lü Bu, note citing the Yingxiong Ji) Xu Dan is not a man Liu Bei brought with him. He commands a thousand Danyang soldiers left over from Tao Qian's time, quartered inside the West White Gate of Xiapi. In the same city sits Cao Bao, the Chancellor of Xiapi and another of Tao Qian's old officers. Neither man gets on with Zhang Fei, who holds the city in Liu Bei's absence. Liu Bei himself is far to the south, on the Huai. In the first year of Jian'an (AD 196), Yuan Shu marched out of Shouchun, and for more than a month Liu Bei has held him off from two towns on the south bank of the river: Xuyi in the west under Guan Yu, Huaiyin in the east under Liu Bei himself. To the north-west, at Xiaopei, sits Lü Bu, driven out of Yan Province the year before and lodged there as Liu Bei's guest. Yuan Shu has written to him and bought Xiapi for two hundred thousand hu of grain. The board begins here. On T2 the fourteen units of Lü Bu's army come down the Si River road from the north-western edge. From T3 the five units at Xiapi (Cao Bao, Cao Bao Men, Xu Dan, Xiapi Danyang and Zhang Kuang) are checked for defection: an even chance on T3, certain on T4. Xu Dan stands on the gate hex. Nothing about this is hidden. You may put Zhang Fei on the gate hex and move Xu Dan out of the city first. On T6 Wu Jing's five units from Guangling come up the Han Canal road from the southern edge, behind Huaiyin. [How Liu Bei wins / How Yuan Shu and Lü Bu win] There is a single margin: (points of the objectives you hold - points of those the enemy holds) + (losses inflicted - losses suffered) + (points for units that left the map). If Liu Bei's margin ends above the victory line of -81, Liu Bei's army wins; below it, Yuan Shu and Lü Bu win. The tactical, operational and strategic levels lie 11, 89 and 178 points beyond the line. Liu Bei begins holding Xiapi 40, Xuyi 20, Huaiyin 20 and Xiaxiang 10; Haixi (20) is on Yuan Shu's side (Wu Jing was his governor of Guangling). If, as the sources say, Liu Bei moves his army east to Haixi, taking it is itself worth points. Losing Xiapi alone moves the margin by 80. The five hexes on the eastern edge, off Haixi and Huaipu, are an exit for Liu Bei's army alone. A unit that leaves the map there scores 1 point per point of combat strength; Liu Bei himself scores 15. A unit that has left can no longer be destroyed. But if all five hexes lie in the zone of control of Yuan Shu and Lü Bu on the final turn, every unit that left is counted as destroyed. Liu Bei's army may move 13 units a turn (of 34). Yuan Shu and Lü Bu begin with 12, rising to 17 when Lü Bu arrives on T2 and to 19 when Wu Jing arrives on T6. [The names under the banners] Liu Bei's army: Liu Bei (Huaiyin, commander's banner), Guan Yu (Xuyi), Chen Dao, Mi Fang, Zhang Fei (holding Xiapi), and Cao Bao, Xu Dan and Zhang Kuang, who change sides. Yuan Shu's army: Yuan Shu (commander's banner), Ji Ling, Zhang Xun, Qiao Rui, Li Feng, Liang Gang, Yue Jiu, Chen Lan, Lei Bo, Sun Ben, Zhang Kai, and Wu Jing (T6). Lü Bu's army: Lü Bu, Gao Shun, Zhang Liao, Chen Gong, Hao Meng, Cao Xing, Hou Cheng, Song Xian, Wei Xu. Placing Guan Yu at Xuyi and Ji Ling in front of it is conjecture. The official history names Ji Ling only for the attack on Xiaopei later that year. Not on the board: Mi Zhu (lieutenant of the province, who at Haixi gave Liu Bei two thousand retainers and his fortune), Sun Qian and Jian Yong (attendant officers), and Chen Deng (that year an agricultural commandant). Zhao Yun is absent: he had gone home to mourn his elder brother, and would not see Liu Bei again for four years. [The question on this board] Once Xiapi opens, what becomes of the line on the Huai? Turn back and retake Xiapi, three to four days by road from Huaiyin? Hold Huaiyin, which is worth 20 points and keeps the road east open? Or leave early for the coast off Haixi and keep the army alive? If you play Yuan Shu and Lü Bu: once Xiapi has fallen, where does Lü Bu go? South, to pin Liu Bei against the river, or east, to close the exit? [Outcome] Liu Bei turned back towards Xiapi, but his army dissolved before he reached it. He gathered the stragglers and went east into Guangling, was beaten by Yuan Shu again, and starved at Haixi, where his soldiers were driven to eating one another. Then Mi Zhu gave him his sister, two thousand retainers and his gold, and the army recovered. Liu Bei submitted to Lü Bu and was sent back to Xiaopei. The promised grain never came, and Lü Bu turned against Yuan Shu. On a night in the sixth month of that year Hao Meng, acting for Yuan Shu, attacked Lü Bu's headquarters at Xiapi, and Gao Shun put him down. Two years later Cao Cao and Liu Bei besieged Xiapi and cut the Si and the Yi to flood the city. Lü Bu was bound at the White Gate Tower. Two hundred thousand hu of grain never came. The West White Gate opened at dawn. At Haixi the soldiers ate one another. Mi Zhu's two thousand gathered them up. Never heard of any Liu Bei in this world. After this defeat, the world began to hear the name. The month-long standoff on the Huai has been folded into the time before the board. The month on the turn track follows the Zizhi Tongjian, which places these events under the sixth month; the days are only the board's one-day steps, since the sources give no dates. Each town has been moved one hex off the river edge. On Cao Bao the sources differ: the Biography of the Former Lord says he rose and let Lü Bu in, while the Yingxiong Ji says Zhang Fei killed him. This board takes both accounts and turns all five units. The single province characters on the counters (徐 Xu, 揚 Yang, 并 Bing) and the commander's banner marked 帥 follow a convention of novels and comics; they are not flags attested in the sources. Lü Bu held no province of his own, so his counters carry Bing, the province his soldiers came from. 1 hex = 7 km, 1 turn = 1 day, 1 CS = about 300 men. T1 = 6/1 (the day Lü Bu leaves Xiaopei), T2 = 6/2 (Lü Bu's army enters), T6 = 6/6 (Wu Jing enters), T12 = 6/12.